Evan Shapiro: “Netflix knows who its competition is”

The IBC Conference was again treated to the vibrant data stylings of “media cartographer” Evan Shapiro whose last IBC was two years ago. His company ESHAP has earned a reputation for no-nonsense, visually engaging presentations which give real viewing numbers and what they mean. And what they usually mean is that traditional broadcasters need to get on social media or risk extinction.

Shapiro’s opener was to show his master slide of the Media Universe in 2025, depicting graphic representations of the revenue of all content companies of note, then comparing it from a well-known one of several years ago. The data point that is most interesting – and perhaps most misleading – is that revenue of many of the media companies has remained relatively stable.

Good news in such turbulent times for the industry? Not really.

Because the wider perspective shows that while the traditional media companies aren’t in danger of imminent collapse, all the growth is in the big tech platforms whose revenues are in the trillions of dollars.

“Big media has plateaued,” said Shapiro, “while technology has continued to expand."

This discrepancy between traditional content companies and the tech platforms is emblematic of the split between two sets of audiences. And while traditional media companies continue to stick with one, they are in danger of losing the other – and with them, a lot of money and engagement.

“Five years ago, when everyone decided to go direct to the consumer, we ceded 100% control to the user. We all use big tech and the users are now in control.”

Shapiro drove home again and again the point that those users who get their content through online media platforms are never going to be wooed back to traditional watching habits. He pointed out how YouTube is not just dominant as a social platform, but as a TV watching platform. Young people are watching the big screen in the living room – but they’re watching YouTube on it.

“Netflix knows who its competition is. It’s YouTube.”

Shapiro begged broadcasters to start going out to social platforms with their content. He cited work he had done with CBC who were sceptical about running their content directly on YouTube. Traditional wisdom would say that sharing content across other platforms would risk cannibalising your audience. But CBC found that in practice the opposite was the case. Using YouTube as a distribution tool made for easier discovery by the users of the platform.

Shapiro dubs the new paradigm of content distribution the “Affinity Economy”, in which content companies go directly to audiences and fans wherever they are and collaborate with them, from commissioning to release.

“In the affinity economy we have to stop using the vanity metrics of the past.”

For Shapiro, the new measurement of successful media businesses will be the loyalty built up with audiences and the willingness for the creator to go to the audience, rather than the other way round.